Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Utah Will Go To a Democrat in November -- Like it Really Matters

So for this Super Tuesday hasn't been kind for Mitt Romney. Although the night is young, I'm going to make a few predictions:

1. Mitt Romney will be finished tonight. (unless he soundly wins California)

2. If Romney does hang up the towel, and the race becomes a two man race between McCain and Huckabee. Utah will go to a Democrat in the general election for the first time since 1964 (if Obama can get the Democratic nomination)

So they aren't really bold predictions. With the acrimony both GOP candidates have produced in regards to Mormonism, if Obama gets the nomination he will have a very good chance at winning Utah in the general election.

I never was all that hyped on any of the GOP candidates, Romney was the candidate I found most electable (maybe for no other reason than a shared religion). With Romney likely going down, I am pinning my support to Obama.


Salt H2O said...

Why would it be McCain v. Huckabee when Romney has more votes? I'm confused....

Since Huckabee and McCain are in bed together- there is a good chance that Huckabee will be McCain's running mate, which means Utah will be blue- which means nothing nationally- but is HUGE locally.

For Utahans to cross their party lines and vote for a democrat is a massive step for local politics and the political face of this state.

Cameron said...

That actually would be quite remarkable if Utah went Democratic in the general election. That would spell a lot of dissatisfaction with the GOP. Utah Dems would be euphoric, to say the least.

Mark Steyn thinks McCain will "toss aside" Huckabee once his anti-Romney usefulness is over.

pramahaphil said...

Good point Salt H20. I guess that wasn't particularly clear, the McCain and Huckabee reference was refering to the remainder of the GOP primary.

Regarding a McCain running mate, I don't think that McCain particularly cares to pursue a conservative running mate. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he took Guliani or even (I'm not sure if it would work constitutionally) Schwarzanegger -- or a Republican who is like-mindedly moderate. I could even see McCain tapping former Dem Senator Lieberman.

pramahaphil said...

I meant Huckabee as a running mate

Jeremy said...

Great anslysis. I think it will be interesting to see conservatives in Utah and througout the nation respond to the very clear message of this primary election that small-government conservatism has such a small constituency now...smaller than it has ever been in recent history.

I have a lot less faith in Utahns than you do. I don't think they'll do the smart thing and vote Democrat I think Utah will go to McCain but with amazingly low voter turnout.

Can you imagine though how nervous many local Republican party officials will be if there is a big backlash and Utahns do back a Democrat? Those could be some scary coattails!